Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 399 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up and remain overbought. In rallies these indicators simply remain overbought as the index moves higher. That is what I expect to happen during expiration week coming up. The market should rally into next Friday and then slow down for the following Thanksgiving holiday week. That's my prognosis at the moment. GE was up 1/2 on good volume. Remaining short term overbought here too. Gold gained ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was pretty light. Gold itself had a pretty good drop this week but I'm a believer in higher prices for the medium term. I'm leaving my open order for some GDX January calls out there. I'll revisit this idea over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. I'd venture to guess that just as the S&P will remain short term overbought, the VIX will remain short term oversold as we move higher next week. We'll wait and see if that actually happens. Retail sales and some housing data are due out next week. The blow off top that we saw for the market on Monday was not an end to the rally. It appears that it was simply a sign that a pause in the rally was at hand. The fact that we did not see a sustained decline afterwards validates that theory in my mind. We'll simply have to see how prices develop next week. The pandemic virus remains but the market is now looking past it with the hopes of a vaccine now in the forefront. How this all plays out remains to be seen. I'll be checking the charts this weekend and who knows? Maybe I'll come up with a short term trade for next week. Asia was lower and Europe generally higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some selling today as the Dow dropped 317 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are starting to roll over but I do not expect a big decline here. The NASDAQ was the best relative performer today and that's a plus. Nothing new on the news front with the pandemic virus the main concern. The economic data out today and for the week hasn't really been a market mover. As long as the summation index keeps moving up the path of least resistance is higher. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up over ten bucks and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU added 1 3/8, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was light. I dumped my GDX November calls for a 95% loss. The entry was terrible on this trade but it still had a chance at a profit at one point. However when gold dropped $100 in a day, this trade was doomed. I really just should have sold out on that day and taken a smaller loss but it still would have been substantial. Just as when the overnight news has the SPY gaining or losing 100 points, the same thing can and does happen with gold. But that is an exception and not the rule. I did place an open order for some GDX January calls and I'm leaving it out there for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did finish off of its best levels. The VIX short term indicators remain oversold despite todays loss. With six days to go in the November option cycle, I don't have any SPY trades in mind. Volatility has kept the option premiums high for now. Time decay will speed up here soon as well. I'll be watching and waiting for now. Taking the GDX call loss today doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

More mixed messages as the Dow was off by 23 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ posting good gains. Lately it seems as though these major indexes are taking turns in leading the way higher. It's been suggested this is just stock rotation and that is possible. A more positive sign would be if all three could advance past the highs of Monday. We'll watch and wait at this point but I do think eventually it will happen. The bond market was closed for Veterans day. GE was off almost a dime on lighter volume. GE is way above its 50 day moving average and I'd expect it to head back towards that region. Gold fell around $15 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. I placed a limit order to sell my GDX November calls but it wasn't filled. I'll be out of this losing trade by the end of the week. Looks to be a toal wipeout with a 95% loss. That's what can happen when you're long the gold shares and gold drops $100 in a day. I'm now looking out to the GDX January calls. GDX is both short and medium term oversold at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to drop and remain oversold. That is usually the case for stock rallies. It is implying higher prices now going forward. Of course my reading of the VIX chart hasn't been all that consistantly accurate over the past few weeks so we'll have to keep that in mind. The overall backdrop remains the same with the election over and the pandemic virus remaining. At this point I'm expecting higher prices going into option expiration next week. We'll see. Europe and Asia continue to climb. Keeping an eye on tonights developments.

A mixed bag today as the Dow was higher but the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ finished in the red. The Dow gained 262 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading higher. The S&P remains short term overbought. The short term technical indicators for the NASDAQ have rolled over. The overall market spent much of the day trading lower in a sideways range. The exception was the Dow. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was heavy. Gold had a decent bounce as the futures were up around $20. The US dollar finished little changed. The bounce in gold did not help the gold shares. The XAU fell 4 1/2, while GDX shed 1 1/3. Volume was average. Probably should have sold my GDX November calls today as a rise in gold without a rise in the gold stocks is bearish. This trade is a solid loser. I might try this idea again though when we get completely oversold. Not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. Yesterdays VIX action implied lower prices in the near term. Both the NASDAQ and S&P were lower today. I would expect to see some more near term weakness though. I could be wrong. Still eight days left in the November option cycle. So there is plenty of time for another trade before expiration out there somewhere. Europe and Asia continued higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the ongoing developments.

It was a volatile start to a new trading week as a successful vaccine for the pandemic virus was announced. The Dow gained 834 points on explosive very heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The Dow opened with a gap higher and was up over 1500 at one point. The big 3 major indices all hit new all time highs early in the session. But things may have gottten a bit ahead of themselves as the NASDAQ finished in the red. Bonds got whacked and it appears that money went into stocks. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and todays volume looks like some kind of blow off top. We'll have to see how the rest of the week turns out. Todays price action makes us again aware of the effects of headline risk either way. GE was up about 2/3 on the same very heavy volume. Gold got clobbered on the vaccine news. The futures were off over $100 at one point and finished the day with a loss of around $85. The US dollar was higher. The XAU dropped 8 3/4, while GDX lost 2 1/2. Volume was good here as traders bailed out. My GDX November calls went back to solid losers. The trade is once again a cut the loss proposition. Nine days to go in the November option cycle and unless we see a dramatic turnaround for gold this week, this trade will undoubtably be a loss. Most of the short term technical indicators have rolled back down for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX turned around from being lower early and ended up positive on the day despite the huge rally in the Dow. Lately that has been the precursor to lower prices for stocks. The VIX is short term oversold as well. If today was indeed some kind of blow off top then the VIX will be correct in letting us know that prices will be lower in the near term. Hasn't happened yet but this has been pretty accurate lately. Of course that probably won't help my gold share call trade but the market certainly doesn't care about what I'm doing. The new vaccine will have to be mass produced and distributed. That won't happen overnight but the market is a forward looking mechanism. Europe and Asia sported very good gains last night as well. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A pause in the rally as the Dow fell 66 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. The jobs report was a bit better than expected but the market seems to still be focussed on politics. The S&P 500 is almost short term overbought but in rallies it can stay that way. The weekly candlestick chart looks positive for the S&P and new all time highs look to be coming soon. But I wouldn't be surprised if we track sideways before attempting the next leg up. GE was up a dime on OK volume. Gold was slightly higher and the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX rose twenty cents. Volume was light. My GDX November calls remain in the black for now. GDX is stalling at the declining tops line but I think it is simply a matter of time before it breaks through. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a good drop today but we didn't see a decent rise in stock prices. Not exactly sure what that means. Now short term oversold on the VIX technical indicators. It was a great week for stocks and we'll see if we can continue the run up next week. Asia was higher and Europe generally lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Up, up and away as the Dow roared ahead by 542 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Nothing new from the Fed and that was fine by the market. Still no official word on the presidential election but that didn't stop the buying either. Pandemic virus? Yeah that's still here but not a concern for stocks at the moment. The S&P 500 is close to near term resistance but the short term technical indicators still have room to move higher. At this rate we'll be at new all time highs by next week. But realistically it might take longer than that. The NASDAQ is leading the way and that's a positive. We'll see what the jobs report has to say tomorrow and the markets reaction to that. GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume. Gold exploded higher and gained almost fifty bucks. The US dollar got crushed. Money is moving around. The XAU soared 10 3/4, while GDX climbed 2 3/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX is now at resistance from a down trend line that began back in early August. The pattern on the daily candlestick chart is a declining rectangle that resembles a flag. That pattern has now digested the previous gain in GDX. We should break through the resistance in the coming days and challenge the recent highs at 45. NEM has a similar pattern and broke its resistance earlier this week. I expect GDX to follow. My GDX November calls went from solid losers to solid winners with todays price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today but did come up off of its best levels. Perhaps the rally needs a rest. Getting oversold now for the VIX but not completely there. The major stock indexes are in rally mode and new all time highs are in the near future barring some kind of unexpected catastrophe. If for some reason the election results go sideways, that would put a damper on stocks. But the market knows everything and it's saying that owning stocks now is the way to go. You may agree or disagree but you have to at least listen. Europe and Asia were higher as the money is flowing around the world. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The rally lives on post-election as the Dow gained 367 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. We did fall back from the days high as the Dow at one point was up 800. No clear winner in the election just yet but it appears that Joe Biden will prove victorious. Combine that with a republican senate and gridlock will be the norm. The market loves that as the status quo will remain. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the major indices still have room to move higher. Perhaps the Fed announcement tomorrow will provide the impetus for another day up. We'll see. Most of the major stock index charts look like they want to go higher but the market as always will go where it wants. I'm looking for more gains in the coming days and weeks. GE was flat on the day and the volume was good. Gold dropped around $8 but was down more overnight. The US dollar had a huge election rally in the overnight session but finished the day with a small loss. The XAU fell four points, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was average. My GDX November calls are back to being solid losers. I'll look to see how they end the week after the Fed and the jobs report. The short term indicators have stalled here and may turn back down. I suppose if I get any chance to end this trade without a loss I'll take it. That may just be wishful thinking at this point though. I did cancel the open order for more GDX calls at a lower strike price. Might revisit this idea later. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX had a huge drop and bounced off its 50 day moving average. Not yet oversold on the indicators here. The election is basically over and the market has spoken. Could we hit new all time highs before the end of the year? Perhaps but we still have the pandemic virus to deal with and there doesn't seem to be any cure coming in the near term. Some foreign countries are returning to lockdowns and that will put a damper on whatever growth that there was. We'll watch and wait for now when it comes to the coronavirus. Most markets around the world continued to climb higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines and see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

The pre-election rally continued as the Dow gained 555 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to turn back up. It appears that the market doesn't really care who wins tonight as long as it is over. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. The next stop looks like the 50 day moving average at 3400. The Dow has now gained almost a thousand points in the two days before the election results. Certainly it doesn't appear to be worried about the outcome. Support has held and unless we see a complete turnaround tomorrow, which I doubt, the market is heading higher. GE was up 1/3 on good volume. Gold futures added another $15 as the US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 2 3/4, while GDX rose 3/4. Volume was lighter than it's been. My GDX November calls are now showing a small profit. I still have the other open order out there for the GDX calls at a lower strike price but will probably cancel it tonight. GDX has now moved too far for this order to get filled. At least the idea here was right but the timing was off. Water under the bridge as they say, I've got to just move on from here. I think that the gold shares still have room to go higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues lower and has plenty of room to move down. That should match up with higher stock prices going forward. I suppose we'll watch the election results tonight and see what happens tomorrow. But I'm pretty sure that we've just begun a sustained rally regardless. Of course I've been sure about a few things lately that didn't come to pass. We've got the Fed and the jobs report to get through as the week moves on. Markets around the globe rallied pretty strongly as well overnight. Money is moving into stocks. We'll see how it goes post election tomorrow.

We start off this important week with a gain as the Dow climbed 423 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. This week holds plenty of variables. We've got the US election tomorrow, followed by the Fed announcement on Thursday and the employment report on Friday. So there will be a lot for the market to digest. Today the Dow was leading things higher with the NASDAQ a laggard. The bulls would like to see that the other way around. On the plus side, support for the S&P 500 has held for now. The short term technical indicators here have started to turn up but they remain oversold. So we are either going to start to rally from here or this is a pause before we head lower. Now I've already thought that we'd be moving higher during the decline of the past few weeks. So I'll just have to wait to see what the market tells us going forward. GE was up a dime and the volume was good. Gold continued moving higher as the futures gained $15. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up 4 1/3, while GDX added 1 1/8. Volume was average. All aboard? It appears that the train has left the station for the gold shares. GDX has risen over 2 1/2 points in three days. Unfortunately for me the order that I placed for the GDX November calls at a lower strike price never got filled. I'm leaving it out there in case we get some kind of sharp drop. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up and I believe that higher is the way we're going to go. Resistance comes in at the 41 level. The GDX November calls that I do own are still losers but the loss is much smaller than it was. If GDX continues to rally from here they may even eventually show a profit. Plenty of time left in the November option cycle but the entry timing of this trade was too early. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits a rising market. Still overbought here and the short term indicators are rolling over. The roll over fits a bullish market scenario if it continues. I would like to think that the selling has concluded here but my conclusions lately have been way off the mark. I would expect some major market movement after the election results are in but would only be guessing if I were to say which way. We'll let the market prove to us where it wants to go. Should be interesting. Europe and Asia were higher overnight so perhaps money is finding its way back into stocks. Or it could be a beginning of the month cash flow situation. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back to the downside as the Dow fell 157 points on very good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. We were off over 500 points but a last hour rally brought the most watched index back. Still short term oversold but it looks like the Dow is trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and is trying not to break the lows of September. The NASDAQ did lead the way lower and that is not a positive. Pandemic virus angst combined with election uncertainty has led to the current market environment. Some things should clear up by Wednesday morning. But just how the market reacts to the election results is anybodies guess. The oversold condition would normally lead you to purchase the SPY calls. However the fact that we've been oversold and are staying that way warrants keeping any possiblity out there. Caution is the word for now regarding the SPY. GE was up a few cents on good volume. Gold had a bounce as the futures rose about ten bucks. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was better than it's been. My GDX November calls are still losers, just not as much. The entry timing here was atrociuos however I think that I can cut the loss down. My open order for the lower strike price GDX November calls was not filled again. I'm leaving it out there but I don't think it will get filled. GDX has already begun to move higher and the short term indicators are turning back up. I'm now fairly confident that the calls here will prove to be the proper selection. However the ones that I have already purchased are so far out of the money that they won't prove to be capable of turning a profit. There are still three weeks to go in the November option cycle but the optimum time to purchase the calls was over the past two trading sessions. I was early. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I would like to get my order for the lower strike price GDX calls filled. I cannot let that affect what I'm doing though because there will be opportunities in the coming days. The recent volatility creates favorable circumstances for trades. The VIX closed much lower than where it opened and is still overbought. It opened above 40 and closed near 38. I think that it is forming a top here and that would lead to a rally in stocks. But everything that I've thought in the past two weeks or so has been off target. So I would take anything said here with a grain of salt. Markets can remain oversold for quite some time just like they can remain overbought. With the NASDAQ leading the way lower I'll say once again caution is advised. We should get some kind of resolution about future policy when the election results are in. How the market reacts to it is the question. We would only be guessing at the answer. I'll be double checking my work over the weekend to come up with a strategy for next week. Asia was down and Europe mixed to finish the week and the month. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A weak bounce today as the Dow rose 139 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. We had been up over 350 at one point. Somethings going on here but I don't know what. Tech earnings after the bell should set the tone for tomorrows open barring any other overnight developments. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. We'll get the end of the month tomorrow and the trading could be skewed. We'll follow the summation index and the trend is down. I'm not sure what to expect next, so no SPY trades in mind for now. GE was off a few cents on good volume. Gold was off around half a dozen while the US dollar continued higher. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was average. The gold shares followed stocks once again. Normally I'd say that it's bullish that the gold shares rose with the price of gold going down. But these aren't normal times. The rise in the US dollar would be a headwind for gold if it continues. My GDX November calls are still solid losers. I do have another open order for the GDX November calls at a lower strike price out there. I may cancel it tonight after I review todays price action. The technicals say buy the gold shares here but my thinking has been pretty wrong lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. Still overbought here and the VIX is saying that the decline is probably over for now. We'll see. Hopefully things will start to become clearer when we get the election out of the way next week. We're entering a favorable seasonal period for stocks but this year has been anything but predictable. I think that we'll just let the week and month come to a close. Asia and Europe were mixed overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The market fell apart today. The Dow lost 943 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. We'll take our cues from there as we should. Whatever I've said about a rise in stocks is wrong. Todays price action confirms that. When there's buy signals that don't work you have to take notice. Oversold now and staying that way and that isn't a good sign going forward. I certainly don't know what the story is here but the market does. I'm not sure how far down the S&P 500 will go but the next support is at 3200. Unknown to me why this is happening but if it is a double top here the measuring objective is around 2900 or so for the S&P. That's pretty far from where we are right now. The summation index is not near the crash zone but I suppose that doesn't mean it can't happen. I guess we'll see if 3200 holds and take it from there. GE bucked the trend and was up 1/3 on extremely heavy volume. Surprise earnings report there. Gold got clobbered as the US dollar was higher. The October futures contract lost $36. The XAU fell almost ten points, while GDX shed 2 1/3. Volume was double what it's been lately as it expanded to the downside. My GDX November calls are now solid losers. I'm thinking that if I give it a few days I can cut the loss a bit from where it is now. Maybe. I did place an order for some other GDX November calls at a lower strike price but it wasn't filled. That may not be the best idea here but the gold share index is oversold and the technical indicators are in a spot where they've rallied from in the recent past. However if the market continues to drop like it did today, it will take the gold shares with it. If the gold futures can't hold the $1850 level, this idea will fail. I probably shouldn't chase things lower here so we'll see what I decide over the evening. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped to over 40 and is very overbought. I guess the question is how high will it go and how long will this last? Volatility is through the roof but it can go higher. One of the more prudent things to do right now is simply head for the sidelines. In my view, unknown market forces are at work here. Oversold and staying that way doesn't happen often. The ensuing declines are usually pretty severe. The reason I'm a believer in the gold shares here is because the technical indicators both short and medium term are in spots that have led to rallies. Will this time be different? It could be but the odds say otherwise. Sometimes in markets like these, you can't be afraid to take a chance and support your ideas. The volatility works both ways and does create opportunities if you are able to take advantage of them. Tomorrow will prove to be another interesting session. We've got the GDP report and earnings from a few of the big tech companies. Money is heading for the exits though as Europe had big drops in stocks. Asia was slightly lower but should play catch up tonight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight markets and see how things go tomorrow.

Some follow through downside for the Dow as it lost 222 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It was a sideways affair for the S&P 500, while the NASDAQ posted a gain. So a mixed bag to say the least. Getting to oversold on the short term technical indicators for the S&P. I think that we are about to head higher and will possibly reach new all time highs before the November option expiration. One of my medium term indicators is starting to flash a buy signal. This indicator gives signals that last for weeks not days. Unless things just completely fall apart here, the signal will prove to be valid. Now I have been bullish in the face of a two week decline. But I think we are simply in a pause before we start to move back up. GE was off 1/4 on good volume. The short term indicators have rolled over here. Gold finished up around $5 on the October futures. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX was up by 5/8. Volume remains very light for the gold shares. My GDX November calls are about where I bought them. Still oversold for GDX, so I'm hoping we are in the beginning of a sustained move higher. But I can't rule out more sideways price inactivity ahead of the US election. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher again today and we are short term overbought. The VIX should turn around here and that would imply higher stock prices going forward. Perhaps the GDP report on Thursday will be a catalyst for some buying ahead of the election. The background remains the same with the pandemic virus and uncertainty around the election as the main concerns. A positive NASDAQ today is a plus for the bulls. I'm already in the trade that I was looking for so it's a watch and wait mode for now. I am considering getting some SPY calls but the premiums there remain elevated. Still plenty of time in the November option cycle. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow got pounded to begin the last week of October as it lost 650 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down. It could have been worse as we were off 950 points in the morning. Selling everywhere as the realization that a stimulus deal isn't going to happen hit home. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 turned lower. The S&P did try to hang on to its 50 day moving average though. 3400 is holding for today but any follow through selling will take that number out. I have been constantly bullish over the past couple of weeks and that prognosis has been proven wrong. Not sure where we go from here. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. GE was off a quarter on good volume. Gold finished little changed on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The gold shares followed the market lower. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX shed almost 2/3. Volume remains light here. Not completely oversold now for the gold shares but we're getting there. My open order for the GDX November calls was finally filled. It's showing a small loss. The calls are out of the money but have plenty of time to work. I'm not exactly sure if this is the right idea for now but after looking at things over the weekend I decided to take the chance. There is the possiblity that we simply go sideways for the gold shares and that is the caveat with this particular idea. I do not think that a huge decline is going to happen with gold right now but my take on things hasn't exactly been right lately. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX spiked up with the huge loss today. We closed above the 200 day moving average and also above the 33 level. The indicators here spiked up as well but there is still some room to go a little higher. Follow through selling tomorrow will take us to short term overbought on the VIX. I'm not sure what is going on here but it appears that we'll be heading lower in a hurry. The market, as always, knows way more than we do. Unless we see some kind of turnaround tomorrow, the selling will continue. It is also looking like a big picture event as markets around the globe sold off. We'll know in due time what the real cause was but for now we'll just have to enjoy the show. There will be opportunities and I hope that I found one today with the gold shares. We'll see. Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the DAX taking the brunt of it. We'll be keeping an eye on the overnight developments.

Kind of a mixed bag today as the Dow was lower and other indices were higher. The most watched index fell 28 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 sported small gains on the session. We are running in place here. The short term technical indicators for the S&P remain mid-range. It feels like we are in a holding pattern until the results of the US presidential election. The pandemic virus remains. The stimulus package is still all talk and no action. The market remains a hostage to these outside influences. I still think that we're heading higher but sideways is the trend for now. GE was off a few cents, dropped from its highs for the day and is overbought. Gold was off a few bucks but did finish up off of the lows. The US dollar was lower. The XAU was down about a point, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume remains very light. My open order was almost filled today for the GDX November calls. I'll decide over the weekend if this is a trade that I really want to do. Not completely oversold here yet so I may have to adjust the order. I'll see how gold is trading on Sunday night and take it from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is heading back towards its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators have turned back down and have room to go lower. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 were both up today and I think that bodes well for the bulls moving forward. I'm still leaning bullish here on the market but we may have another week of sideways malaise. I could be wrong and often am. Lately my view on the markets hasn't been accurate. We'll see if it gets any better as we go along in the November option cycle. Europe and Asia were generally higher to finish the week. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend and deciding what to do about the potential GDX November call trade. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Higher today as the market shrugged off overnight bad news. The Dow gained 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The S&P 500 has held its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators appear to be trying to turn back up and they remain mid-range. I'm still looking for higher prices going forward. The market remains hostage to the pandemic, upcoming election and stimulus negotiations. However with plenty of time in the November option cycle, there's no rush to trade. GE was up 3/8 on average volume. Gold dropped back today as the futures fell twenty bucks. The US dollar was higher. The XAU shed 1 2/3, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was light. The gold shares did rebound from their worst levels of the day. My order remains out there for the GDX November calls as todays drop was not enough to trigger it. I do think that GDX will eventually trade higher although we cannot rule out and extended sideways pattern. That's about what we're seeing now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell and that coincides with a rise in stock prices. The short term indicators here have rolled over and imply higher prices going forward. If we can get the summation index moving up again, that would be the all clear for a rally. Hasn't happened yet but I do think that it will. May have to wait until after the election though. For now we'll watch and wait for a good signal one way or the other. Europe and Asia were generally lower in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

It was an up and down session as the Dow fell 98 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The market is being held hostage by the political drama in Washington. Stimulus or no stimulus, deadlines passed and extended. It's a non stop government soap opera. The S&P 500 technicals are still mid-range so we'll wait to see which way they go. I'm still looking for higher prices in the near term. Of course I've been saying that for a week and it hasn't happened. No SPY trades in mind for now. GE lost a couple cents and the volume was pretty light. Gold found a bid as the futures were up around $15. The US dollar continued lower. The XAU rose two points, while GDX was up about 1/2. Volume remains light here. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there but it might be too late. The short term technical indicators for GDX are starting to turn around. This won't be a trade that I chase though. Either my order gets filled where I have it or I'll pass. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with lower prices and that's not the usual reaction either. We did not break the 200 day moving average to the upside here and we are at the top of a trend channel. So my thinking is that we'll be seeing a lower VIX and higher stock prices going forward from here. The short term technical indicators have also started to roll over. If we get an announcement of a stimulus deal the market will have an excuse to rally. Hasn't happened yet. For now I'm trying to remain patient as we wait to see what the future holds. Still in the pandemic virus mode along with pre-election angst. We'll have a better picture after November 3rd hopefully. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A bounce today as the Dow gained 113 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trending sideways. Still waiting on a stimulus deal and we should know before the open tomorrow. Todays upside was expected as we did have an oversold signal on one of the technical indicators that's usually reliable. The question now is was it a one day bounce or the beginning of something sustained to the upside? I'm inclined to believe the latter, as I think that some kind of deal will be reached and the market will rally. Just a week ago the talks had supposedly ended but we see where we are now. I guess the Tuesday deadline for the stimulus talks could be extended as well. We're dealing with politicians so you can't really believe anything that you hear. The market is held hostage to this nonsense for now but it too will pass. The S&P 500 technical indicators on a short term basis are mid-range. Could go either way here but I still think that we'll move higher from these levels this week. GE was up a nickel on lighter volume. Gold was up eight bucks as the US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 1/3. Volume remains pretty light. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there. I guess the most I can hope for here is that GDX trades sideways for a while and perhaps the order eventually gets filled. Plenty of time in the November option cycle for GDX to get oversold though. That would be the reasonable and ideal time to try the calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today despite a rise in the market again. This has spelled near term trouble for stocks lately but not long lasting. I have no idea what it means this time around. I haven't been able to wrap my head around what the VIX has been doing lately. One day it acts like it should and another it does the opposite. It is short term overbought and I would expect a drop in the VIX and a rise in stock prices in the coming days. That's my best guess right now. However my ideas on the market haven't been exactly correct lately and hence that's why I'm not trading the SPY right now. Not to mention the expanded option premiums due to the extra week in the November cycle. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what kind of announcement we get on the US stimulus package and take it from there.

The Dow fell 410 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now starting to roll over. Worry about a stimulus deal is the excuse for todays sell off. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down and are heading lower. They are mid-range at the moment. I certainly thought that by now we would have turned higher but my read on things here was wrong. I am now getting a buy signal from one of my technical indicators but with so much time left in the November options I'm not going to venture into the SPY calls. Premiums are high for the options. However if a stimulus deal is announced, you can expect quite a short term rally in my view. Conversely if a deal isn't reached, lower prices will ensue. GE was flat on the day and the volume was good. Gold was off a buck or so and the US dollar was lower. The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX lost 2/3. Volume remains very light. Once again the gold shares are leading the way lower and that's bearish for the precious metals complex. Nonetheless I'm keeping my open order out there for the Novermber GDX calls. If GDX continues to drop it should get filled. Not yet oversold on the short term for GDX but we're getting there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX once again foreshadowed a drop in prices when rising with a rise in equity prices last week. The previous time it led to a quick decline that was not long lasting. It was higher today which fits in with a down market. Just about short term overbought on the indicators there. Combine that with a short term buy signal that I mentioned before and a case can be made for the SPY calls here. I'm not willing to take that chance though. But I would not be surprised if a stimulus deal is reached tomorrow and the market rallies. I would be surprised if some kind of deal isn't reached. We can simply wait and see. There is so much time left on the November options that there will be other opportunities down the road with lower option premiums. Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.