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Friday, November 13, 2020

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 399 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up and remain overbought. In rallies these indicators simply remain overbought as the index moves higher. That is what I expect to happen during expiration week coming up. The market should rally into next Friday and then slow down for the following Thanksgiving holiday week. That's my prognosis at the moment. GE was up 1/2 on good volume. Remaining short term overbought here too. Gold gained ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was pretty light. Gold itself had a pretty good drop this week but I'm a believer in higher prices for the medium term. I'm leaving my open order for some GDX January calls out there. I'll revisit this idea over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. I'd venture to guess that just as the S&P will remain short term overbought, the VIX will remain short term oversold as we move higher next week. We'll wait and see if that actually happens. Retail sales and some housing data are due out next week. The blow off top that we saw for the market on Monday was not an end to the rally. It appears that it was simply a sign that a pause in the rally was at hand. The fact that we did not see a sustained decline afterwards validates that theory in my mind. We'll simply have to see how prices develop next week. The pandemic virus remains but the market is now looking past it with the hopes of a vaccine now in the forefront. How this all plays out remains to be seen. I'll be checking the charts this weekend and who knows? Maybe I'll come up with a short term trade for next week. Asia was lower and Europe generally higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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