Thursday, November 12, 2020
Some selling today as the Dow dropped 317 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are starting to roll over but I do not expect a big decline here. The NASDAQ was the best relative performer today and that's a plus. Nothing new on the news front with the pandemic virus the main concern. The economic data out today and for the week hasn't really been a market mover. As long as the summation index keeps moving up the path of least resistance is higher. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up over ten bucks and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU added 1 3/8, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was light. I dumped my GDX November calls for a 95% loss. The entry was terrible on this trade but it still had a chance at a profit at one point. However when gold dropped $100 in a day, this trade was doomed. I really just should have sold out on that day and taken a smaller loss but it still would have been substantial. Just as when the overnight news has the SPY gaining or losing 100 points, the same thing can and does happen with gold. But that is an exception and not the rule. I did place an open order for some GDX January calls and I'm leaving it out there for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did finish off of its best levels. The VIX short term indicators remain oversold despite todays loss. With six days to go in the November option cycle, I don't have any SPY trades in mind. Volatility has kept the option premiums high for now. Time decay will speed up here soon as well. I'll be watching and waiting for now. Taking the GDX call loss today doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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