Tuesday, November 24, 2020
The Dow had its first close above the 30000 milestone today as it gained 454 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positve for the second day in a row. The summation index is moving higher. Only buyers to be found as the market has no overhead resistance. The election has finally been sorted out and the vaccine news has been nothing but positive. Short term overbought for the major stock indexes and staying that way. That is the hallmark of a rally. My idea for the SPY December puts is on the back burner for now. There appears to be nothing in the way of higher prices going forward. There is a sell signal out there from one of the reliable indicators but the timing is in question. For now I'll have to wait. I thought this week would be quiet and it certainly isn't that. My ideas have been off lately. GE was up another 1/3 on very heavy volume. Overextended here to be sure. Gold continued to drop as the futures lost another thirty bucks. The US dollar was lower as well. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost 7/8. Volume was good. Gold and the gold shares are in free fall but the gold shares held up better relatively today. Oversold and staying that way both short and medium term for the gold shares. I did not anticipate that. Staying on the sidelines here for now. Sometimes you have to simply step aside and let things play out. That seems to be the case right now regarding GDX. Unless you own the puts there and then you are looking good. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and remains oversold. We're in the third week of being oversold on the VIX and this won't last forever. It has already been longer than usual. Small caps, the TRAN and the most of the major indices are leading the way here. The NASDAQ has been the laggard but that could change soon. Money is pouring into stocks at the moment so we'll have to see how far the momentum run goes. It's usually farther than you think it can go. Only a couple of trading days left this week and one of them is cut short. I'll wait things out for now. Europe and Asia were higher as stocks are being purchased around the globe. We'll look for higher prices again tomorrow.
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