Wednesday, November 25, 2020
A pause in the rally today as the Dow fell 173 points on still heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ sporting a gain. The economic data out today was mixed. Some stronger and some weaker than expected. The short term technical picture for the S&P 500 remains overbought. The market will be off tomorrow and then a half day on Friday. So this week is pretty much done. GE was up a nickel and the volume was good. Gold was flat on the session after being higher early on. The US dollar was lower. The XAU was up 2 1/8, while GDX gained almost 2/3. Volume was light. The gold shares had better relative strength than the price of gold and we haven't seen that in a while. It is however too early to tell if the decline here is over. GDX does remain oversold on both a short and medium term basis. It is trying to hang on to its 50 week moving average on the weekly charts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower despite the drop in price today. That's a divergence that we haven't seen in a while. Still short term oversold on the VIX. My thinking right now is that the rally will continue and the market will remain overbought. If and when I do see a short term sell signal, I might try the SPY December puts. But the trend now is decidedly up and I do not want to go against that at the moment. There is also no overhead resistance for stocks as we are hitting new all time highs on many of the stock indices. Trying to remain patient for now. Europe and Asia were mixed in the overnight trade. A Happy Thanksgiving to everyone out there. Enjoy the time off.
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