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Thursday, November 05, 2020

Up, up and away as the Dow roared ahead by 542 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Nothing new from the Fed and that was fine by the market. Still no official word on the presidential election but that didn't stop the buying either. Pandemic virus? Yeah that's still here but not a concern for stocks at the moment. The S&P 500 is close to near term resistance but the short term technical indicators still have room to move higher. At this rate we'll be at new all time highs by next week. But realistically it might take longer than that. The NASDAQ is leading the way and that's a positive. We'll see what the jobs report has to say tomorrow and the markets reaction to that. GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume. Gold exploded higher and gained almost fifty bucks. The US dollar got crushed. Money is moving around. The XAU soared 10 3/4, while GDX climbed 2 3/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX is now at resistance from a down trend line that began back in early August. The pattern on the daily candlestick chart is a declining rectangle that resembles a flag. That pattern has now digested the previous gain in GDX. We should break through the resistance in the coming days and challenge the recent highs at 45. NEM has a similar pattern and broke its resistance earlier this week. I expect GDX to follow. My GDX November calls went from solid losers to solid winners with todays price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today but did come up off of its best levels. Perhaps the rally needs a rest. Getting oversold now for the VIX but not completely there. The major stock indexes are in rally mode and new all time highs are in the near future barring some kind of unexpected catastrophe. If for some reason the election results go sideways, that would put a damper on stocks. But the market knows everything and it's saying that owning stocks now is the way to go. You may agree or disagree but you have to at least listen. Europe and Asia were higher as the money is flowing around the world. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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