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Monday, November 02, 2020

We start off this important week with a gain as the Dow climbed 423 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. This week holds plenty of variables. We've got the US election tomorrow, followed by the Fed announcement on Thursday and the employment report on Friday. So there will be a lot for the market to digest. Today the Dow was leading things higher with the NASDAQ a laggard. The bulls would like to see that the other way around. On the plus side, support for the S&P 500 has held for now. The short term technical indicators here have started to turn up but they remain oversold. So we are either going to start to rally from here or this is a pause before we head lower. Now I've already thought that we'd be moving higher during the decline of the past few weeks. So I'll just have to wait to see what the market tells us going forward. GE was up a dime and the volume was good. Gold continued moving higher as the futures gained $15. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up 4 1/3, while GDX added 1 1/8. Volume was average. All aboard? It appears that the train has left the station for the gold shares. GDX has risen over 2 1/2 points in three days. Unfortunately for me the order that I placed for the GDX November calls at a lower strike price never got filled. I'm leaving it out there in case we get some kind of sharp drop. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up and I believe that higher is the way we're going to go. Resistance comes in at the 41 level. The GDX November calls that I do own are still losers but the loss is much smaller than it was. If GDX continues to rally from here they may even eventually show a profit. Plenty of time left in the November option cycle but the entry timing of this trade was too early. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits a rising market. Still overbought here and the short term indicators are rolling over. The roll over fits a bullish market scenario if it continues. I would like to think that the selling has concluded here but my conclusions lately have been way off the mark. I would expect some major market movement after the election results are in but would only be guessing if I were to say which way. We'll let the market prove to us where it wants to go. Should be interesting. Europe and Asia were higher overnight so perhaps money is finding its way back into stocks. Or it could be a beginning of the month cash flow situation. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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