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Monday, November 09, 2020

It was a volatile start to a new trading week as a successful vaccine for the pandemic virus was announced. The Dow gained 834 points on explosive very heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The Dow opened with a gap higher and was up over 1500 at one point. The big 3 major indices all hit new all time highs early in the session. But things may have gottten a bit ahead of themselves as the NASDAQ finished in the red. Bonds got whacked and it appears that money went into stocks. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and todays volume looks like some kind of blow off top. We'll have to see how the rest of the week turns out. Todays price action makes us again aware of the effects of headline risk either way. GE was up about 2/3 on the same very heavy volume. Gold got clobbered on the vaccine news. The futures were off over $100 at one point and finished the day with a loss of around $85. The US dollar was higher. The XAU dropped 8 3/4, while GDX lost 2 1/2. Volume was good here as traders bailed out. My GDX November calls went back to solid losers. The trade is once again a cut the loss proposition. Nine days to go in the November option cycle and unless we see a dramatic turnaround for gold this week, this trade will undoubtably be a loss. Most of the short term technical indicators have rolled back down for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX turned around from being lower early and ended up positive on the day despite the huge rally in the Dow. Lately that has been the precursor to lower prices for stocks. The VIX is short term oversold as well. If today was indeed some kind of blow off top then the VIX will be correct in letting us know that prices will be lower in the near term. Hasn't happened yet but this has been pretty accurate lately. Of course that probably won't help my gold share call trade but the market certainly doesn't care about what I'm doing. The new vaccine will have to be mass produced and distributed. That won't happen overnight but the market is a forward looking mechanism. Europe and Asia sported very good gains last night as well. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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