Monday, November 23, 2020
The Dow gained 330 points to start the holiday shortened week. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive and the volume was heavy. The summation index is moving higher. The Dow was the best relative performer on the day regarding the major averages. I was expecting the week to be rather slow so we'll see where things go from here. Still short term overbought for most of the stock indices. No news out to speak of today. We'll get some data due on Wednesday. The ongoing backdrop of the pandemic virus remains the same. GE was up 1/3 on good volume. Still very overbought here. Gold got slammed as the futures dropped over $35. Gold has now broken throught the last support at $1850. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 4 2/3, while GDX lost over 1 1/2. Volume was above average. GDX is oversold and staying that way. I did not see that coming. My stop limit loss order to sell my GDX January calls was knifed through without the order being filled. That happens when you get a quick drop like we had this morning. As much as I'd like to stay with this trade, I simply dumped the calls at the market which is really what you're supposed to do in these kind of instances. The loss was a little over 50% and I can live with that. My idea about the desending rectangle on the daily GDX was wrong as was my expectation of some upside from the short term oversold technical readings. Now that gold has broken the $1850 level, it's anyones guess where the next support will be. $1800 seems logical but will it hold? I'll probably try the GDX calls again at some point but not right away as my take on things here is off. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. Oversold and staying that way here and that is supportive of the current rally. I'll be waiting for a sell signal in the S&P 500, hopefully in the next week of so. If that happens I'll be trying the SPY December puts. My thought right now is to let this week pass and go from there. Another losing trade like today doesn't help with the confidence factor. So patience will be required for now. Asia and Europe were mixed. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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