Wednesday, November 11, 2020
More mixed messages as the Dow was off by 23 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ posting good gains. Lately it seems as though these major indexes are taking turns in leading the way higher. It's been suggested this is just stock rotation and that is possible. A more positive sign would be if all three could advance past the highs of Monday. We'll watch and wait at this point but I do think eventually it will happen. The bond market was closed for Veterans day. GE was off almost a dime on lighter volume. GE is way above its 50 day moving average and I'd expect it to head back towards that region. Gold fell around $15 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. I placed a limit order to sell my GDX November calls but it wasn't filled. I'll be out of this losing trade by the end of the week. Looks to be a toal wipeout with a 95% loss. That's what can happen when you're long the gold shares and gold drops $100 in a day. I'm now looking out to the GDX January calls. GDX is both short and medium term oversold at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to drop and remain oversold. That is usually the case for stock rallies. It is implying higher prices now going forward. Of course my reading of the VIX chart hasn't been all that consistantly accurate over the past few weeks so we'll have to keep that in mind. The overall backdrop remains the same with the election over and the pandemic virus remaining. At this point I'm expecting higher prices going into option expiration next week. We'll see. Europe and Asia continue to climb. Keeping an eye on tonights developments.
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