Thursday, November 19, 2020
It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. The most watched index gained 44 points on good volume. The advance/declines were psoitive. The summation index is moving up. After the early morning lows the market spent the day fighting its way back. The short term technical picture for the S&P 500 remains overbought. The NASDAQ was again the better relative performer and that's a plus for the bulls. We'll see how the week finishes tomorrow. GE was off a ferw cents on lighter volume. Gold continues to fall, the futures dropped again today. The US dollar finished little changed again. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on what passes for average volume these days. My GDX January calls remain losers and at this rate will be stopped out soon. GDX has made it all the way back to its 200 day moving average. Oversold on both the short and medium term for GDX. If GDX doesn't bounce here it would be in real trouble. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a positive market. Still short term oversold for the VIX. One of the indicators that I watch that doesn't normally give off a signal is flashing a sell. Over the past three years it has generated four sell signals with three of them preceding decent declines. It sometimes has a lag before the selling begins in earnest. Note that it's worked 75% of time in the past few years, so it is something to be aware of. I'm now considering the SPY December puts if we get a short term sell signal. Perhaps if we get a light volume holiday week rally, that would be the set up. We'll see. Europe and Asia followed yesterdays US market lower. We'll see how option expiration goes tomorrow.
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