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Wednesday, November 18, 2020

We saw some more selling today as the Dow fell 344 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to move up. The market just started to fall apart in the final forty minutes today. I certainly don't know why. Could be option expiration related but that's just a guess. The volume has been very heavy lately but I think that relates to getting business done before next holiday week. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. There's plenty of room to head lower on the indicators from here. Perhaps my current positive outlook isn't warranted. GE added a nickel on heavy volume but came off of the highs for the day. Gold fell over ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU dropped 4 1/2, while GDX lost 1 1/8. Volume picked up a touch to the downside. My open order for the GDX January calls was filled and is showing a small loss. This trade will at least be managed better as the stop loss order is already in place. As I've already said, the gold shares are both short and medium term oversold. Unless we are about to see some sort of collapse, these issues should turn back up and sooner rather than later. I don't know if I will hold this trade until January as I think that perhaps any chance to get out with a profit may be taken. We'll just have to see how things play out as it goes along, like any other trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back up today, which goes along with a down market. Still oversold here on a short term basis. The NASDAQ again fared a little better than the major averages. I am puzzled by the market action so far this week as I expected the usual expiration week positive bias to take effect. We'll have to see how the rest of the week trades. I'm still a believer that next week will be slow. Perhaps it would have been better to wait until after Thanksgiving to attempt the next trade. However it's too late for that now. Asia was mixed and Europe generally positive in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on what happens in tonights market action.

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