Monday, November 30, 2020
Some end of the month selling to begin the week as the Dow fell 266 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ again was the outperformer, so there's probably no need to worry about an extended decline just yet. But we are seeing a pretty reliable sell signal being flashed on one of the technical indicators that we watch. Timing is the key and we don't have that down yet. Plenty of economic data due out this week with the jobs report on Friday as the last bit of information. We've also got the Fed speking tomorrow and Wednesday. So there will be plenty of opportunity for movement. GE was off over 1/8 on good volume. It came up off of its lows. Gold fell over $5 and the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU was up a point and GDX rose 3/8. Volume was average for lately. Once again the gold shares are doing better than the price of gold and that's a positive for the bulls. But I'm still going to wait and see if gold can get to $1750 before I venture into another trade with the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today even with a decline in stocks. That has led to weakness lately. Still short term oversold for the VIX and it's been that way for weeks. Won't last forever. I am looking at the SPY December puts but not in a hurry to buy any at this time. A lot of sentiment indicators are overly bullish but using them for the timing of a trade isn't always the best idea. I'm trying to wait for an actual short term technical sell signal. May or may not happen this week. We should see some beginning of the month money flows tomorrow. I will say that I've seen some pretty good first half of the month December declines in the past. Whether or not this year is like that remains to be seen. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight as taking some end of the month profits seemed to be a global affair. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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