Tuesday, December 01, 2020
December begins to the upside as the Dow gained 185 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving back up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. New all time highs for some of the major stock indices. Remaining short term overbought for most as well. We did finish off of the best levels for the day but there is not overhead resistance and the rally remains intact. GE lost a couple cents on average volume. Gold found buyers to start the month and the futures climbed over $35. The US dollar was lower and appears to be breaking down again. That would support gold if it continues. The XAU was up 5 1/8, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was average. The short term indicators for the gold shares have turned back up and it's possible that the decline there is over. Gold itself did not make it down to the $1750 level that I was looking for. I'm not in a rush to try the gold share calls here again and will simply watch and wait for now. There is a possiblity that I'll try the GDX January calls in the coming weeks. The medium term technical picture there is oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today along with stocks. That isn't the expected pattern. Still short term oversold and that condition needs to be changed eventually. It's already been quite a long time. I'm not sure if that means we're about to see some selling but we'll see. The market is running on all cylinders now to the upside. It can remain overbought much longer than you think. I am still thinking about the SPY December puts only because of the reliable sell signal that one of the indicators is giving off. However as I've said, the timing isn't guaranteed. I'll continue to wait for an actual sell signal for now. Europe and Asia were higher as money is flowing around the world. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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