Monday, December 21, 2020
Quite a ride today as the Dow was off over 400 points early on but had a one day reversal to the upside and finished with a slight gain of 37 points on heavy volume. So much for being a slow holiday week. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The stimulus deal is now done and just waiting on the vote. The market sold off early as the stimulus was already priced in. The pandemic virus fears are back in front of the news with a new strain in Europe. The vaccine rollout is bumpy but it will take months for that to be effective. It is also already priced in to the market. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. The Bollinger bands here are starting to contract which implies a decent price move on the way. I thought that traders would be taking some time off but I suppose I was wrong on that. GE lost a few cents and the volume was average. Gold bounced around as well today. It was up over the $1900 level overnight but then backed off and lost $7 on the February futures. The US dollar soared early but only finished with a slight gain. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on pretty light volume. I did place an overnight order for the GDX January calls but canceled it during the trading session. The price action in gold today wasn't exactly positive. We are also still overbought in the short term for GDX. I do still like this idea though and may place another order in the near future. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX was positve today and had a huge spike up to its 200 day moving average before falling back. I'm not sure what that all means but the short term indicators are turning back up. That would suggest that there's more selling to come. But the comeback in stocks today was impressive as we were really on the ropes early. We'll have to see how the rest of this week shapes up. For now, I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY but I am looking at the January calls. Europe and Asia were lower. We'll see how they react to the US comeback tonight.
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