Tuesday, December 22, 2020
A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 200 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index has started to roll over. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with both the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 closing at new all time highs. So even though the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over, it's hard to be too negative about things going forward. We're also on the cusp of the Santa Claus rally period which usually provides a lift for stocks. I'm still looking at the SPY January calls but the premiums are pricey. GE was off over 1/8 on average volume. Gold fell $15 on the February futures contract. The US dollar was higher. The XAU dropped 4 3/4, while GDX shed a little over a point. Volume picked up to the downside and that isn't a good sign for the bulls. The technical indicators for GDX have rolled over as well. The gold shares were relatively weaker compared to the precious metal itself and that is another negative. I did place another open order for some GDX January calls. Another day like today may get it filled. I'll have to recheck the thinking on this trade because the gold shares are not acting in a positive manner at the moment. The rally of last week looks like it was simply an options expiration ploy. Also Barrick Gold (GOLD) looks to be on the verge of a breakdown from the latest support level. It's something to keep an eye on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell today which fits with the small stocks but not the large caps. The short term indicators here are now mid-range as things could go one way or the other. Tomorrow is the last full trading day for the week. It should be the final clean up in trading accounts for this year. We'll see if the short trading day on Thursday starts the Santa Claus rally. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things shape up tomorrow.
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