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Monday, December 07, 2020

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow fell 148 points on the continued heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues up. The NASDAQ was up on the session and the Russell 2000 eeked out a gain. The major stock averages are still short term overbought and still hugging the upper Bollinger band. This could go on for a few more days but we're overdue for some kind of pullback in my humble opinion. I'm still waiting for at least some kind of sell signal before trying the SPY December puts. There remains no overhead resistance for stocks and where the top is for this rally nobody really knows. The stimulus deal is still up in the air and the pandemic virus remains. The vaccine roll out is due before the end of the month hopefully. Nine days to go in the December option cycle. GE was off two cents after being higher for much of the day. Overdue for a rest here as well. Gold found a bid to begin the week, with the futures up over $25. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU gained 4 1/4, while GDX added almost 1 1/4. Volume was a bit better than it has been lately. I did place an open order for the GDX December calls over the weekend but the gold shares took off from the start. It's safe to say that I've missed this move up in the gold shares but I'm again looking out to January if we get any kind of move lower in the next couple of weeks. GDX isn't short term overbought yet but I don't really want to chase it after todays nice move up. The medium term technical picture for GDX is still oversold so there is plenty of room for it to go higher going forward. If the overall market has some sort of decline it will probably take the gold shares with it and that would be the opportunity that we're looking for. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with the big cap decline. The short term indicators have moved up here but not with any conviction. That may indicate that the decline that I'm hoping for is more far off than I'd like. We're still looking at the 20 level as the near term resistance for the VIX. If we could some how make it through there it could be off to the races for stocks. Hasn't happened yet. I'd like to put on some kind of trade before the December expiration but remaining patient for now. Not a lot of economic data out this week. Brexit talks are in the background here in the US. Europe and Asia were generally lower to start the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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