Thursday, December 31, 2020
A quiet day turned into a last day of the year two hour rally and the Dow finished the year at a new record high. The most watched index ended 2020 with a gain of 197 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower but in a sideways range. The Dow and S&P 500 closed at all time highs. The trading day was drifting in a sideways channel before the buyers piled in ahead of the new year. Front running the expected rally to begin 2021 I assume. Nothing on the news front to account for the gain. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. GE was up almost a dime and the volume was light. Gold was up a few bucks on the February contract and the US dollar was higher as well. The gold shares dropped, with the XAU off almost 3 points and GDX down 1/2. Volume was light. Gold up and the gold shares down is bearish. I do still have my open order for the GDX January calls out there. Once again I'll be considering canceling this order over the long holiday weekend. The short term techncial indicators for GDX are mid-range so things could go either way. Once again the 50 day moving average held as resistance. I'll think it over in the next three days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished almost unchanged today and that doesn't match the decent gain in stocks that we saw. Still short term oversold here. I do expect stocks to rally on Monday morning as they often do to begin the new year. The Santa Claus rally has been in full swing this year and it has two trading days left. I'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with some type of game plan for the final two weeks in the January option cycle. It's the end of the year and my trading account finished with a gain of 30% for the year. There were a couple of good trades during the year but many more that were poorly mismanaged. That will be something to work on in 2021. There's plenty of money to be made in the game, you just have to be good enough to do it. Happy New Year to everyone and we'll be back at it on Monday. Enjoy the long weekend.
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