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Monday, January 04, 2021

2021 begins with a sell off as the Dow fell 382 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still in a downwards channel. It could have been worse as we were off over 700 points during the session. The beginning of the year buying that I was expecting did not materialize. Instead it was a rush to the exits to begin the new trading year. I'm not sure what it means or how long it lasts. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over. They have plenty of room to go lower. The sell off was widespread today with both the NASDAQ and the S&P weaker than the Dow. We did see some buying after lunch in New York, which helped today from becoming a complete debacle. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. GE was off 1/3 on good volume. Gold was the star of the day. The futures there jumped over fifty bucks. The US dollar finished little changed on the session. The XAU climbed almost ten points, while GDX was up 2 1/2. Volume was heavy. I did have an overnight order for some GDX January calls but GDX had a gap at the open. The order never had a chance to be filled. Today gold broke through the downtrend line that has been in effect since August on heavy volume. This implies that the break out is for real. The XAU also broke out of a massive rectangle pattern that has been in effect for the same time. GDX has yet to do so but I expect that it will. I'm going to chase this move higher and placed another order for some more GDX January calls. It may or may not be filled. Obvious in hindsight but last Thursday was the ideal time for this idea. GDX is overbought but in rallies it can stay that way. We may see a snap back to the breakout points for gold and the gold shares. That would be the spot to purchase calls. But we may also just continue to trend higher from here with no return to the breakout. We'll see what happens overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher and closed up over 4 points. The indicators here have turned up and have plenty of room to go higher. That implies some more selling to come. Not sure what led to the selling today. We'll get the jobs report on Friday, which should be a market mover. There's also a special election in Georgia that might cause some volatility after the results tomorrow night. For now we'll take note of what happened today and see where it goes tomorrow. Asia was generally higher but Japan was down. Europe opened the year positive. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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