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Thursday, January 21, 2021

Today felt like a day of digesting the recent gains or perhaps just running in place. The Dow fell 12 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The overall market was once again stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. The major stock averages remain short term overbought. As long as the small stocks are leading the way, higher prices can be expected. No market moving news really as the earnings reports are starting to take hold. GE was off 1/3 on light volume. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower. Given the move lower in the dollar, I would have expected better gains for the price of gold. The XAU fell a couple points, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. I did place another order for the GDX February calls only to cancel it before the close. My thinking now is that I'll wait until next week to begin this trade. However I may also just drop this idea as perhaps my thinking here is off. GDX doesn't look to be putting in a sustained rally anytime soon at this rate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and now is back to oversold. It can stay oversold if the rally continues. With no overhead resistance this is possible. I'd like to see some kind of blow off top that moves pretty far from the 50 day moving average in the S&P. But that's just wishful thinking. The market goes where it wants to and rarely cooperates with the wishes of traders. With option premiums remaining pricey with the extra week in the February cycle, we'll remain on the sidelines for now. Waiting for a good technical signal. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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