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Friday, January 08, 2021

Momentum rules for now. Weak jobs report? No problem, as the Dow rose 56 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still in a downwards channel despite trying to turn back up. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. It's a teflon market as nothing sticks as far as the bad news goes. Liquidity is king and plentiful at the moment. New all time highs on a daily basis. Starting to go straight up in the S&P. It won't end well but trying to call the end is fruitless. Still short term overbought but we'll probably just run things up into the option expiration. GE was up a few cents on lighter volume. Gold got clobbered today. The selling began overnight and simply continued for most of the day. The futures fell over $65 and broke all the recent support levels. The US dollar was up despite the weak employment report. The XAU lost 7 1/4, while GDX dropped 1 7/8. Volume was good. The gold shares did finish off of the worst levels of the day. GDX had a gap down at the open and that did in any stop loss orders. I dumped my GDX January calls for an 80% loss. Monday had a breakout for gold and the gold shares on good volume so I decided to chase the move. But the price action since then has been negative and the breakout proved to be false. I should have realized when gold dropped on Wednesday as the US government was under seige that it wasn't a good sign. Hindsight is always correct. Today we got a weak jobs number that normally would have meant a rally for gold. Instead it sold off even harder when the market in the US opened. I'm not sure what the reasons are but we've got to respect the price action. I'll wait for GDX to get oversold and maybe try the calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite having the first trade of the year be a loss. I certainly didn't expect gold to fall off a cliff today. It is just another reminder that the markets go where they want. Considering the drop in gold itself, the gold shares didn't do too bad. The VIX was lower today and we're heading down to the important level of 20, which has contained the VIX for almost a year now. A drop below there would signal even a stronger rally for stocks. I don't see that happening immediately given the overbought condition for the S&P right now. But who knows? Perhaps the blow off top will climb to the moon. Plenty to ponder over the weekend and I'll be checking the charts as well. Europe and Asia were both higher to finish the week as the stock market party is going around the world. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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