Tuesday, January 12, 2021
It was an up and down session all day with the Dow gaining 60 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trying to make up its mind in a downwards channel. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. My case for the SPY January puts has ended. Yes they might still prove profitable to try in the remaining days before expiration but it isn't worth the risk to me. With only three days left in the January option cycle the timing would almost have to be perfect. Had the market continued higher here early in the week, I probably would have given it a try. But we've already worked off some of the overbought condition. I can't rule out another run at new all time highs before the week is out. GE was up 1/3 on average volume and is getting short term overbought again. Gold had a bounce as the futures were up a dozen. The US dollar fell back today. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on pretty light volume. They did finish well above the lows for the day. Getting short term oversold here but not there yet. Patience is the strategy for now before trying the GDX calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remained below its 50 day moving average. This would be beneficial to the bulls if it can continue lower tomorrow. We have yet to see the usual positive option expiration week bias exert itself. Not a big week for economic data. Some inflation numbers and then retail sales on Friday. We do have the beige book tomorrow. Not sure which way things will go here but would not be surprised with higher prices going into Friday. I'm on the sidelines with regards to any trades right now. Asia generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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