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Tuesday, January 05, 2021

A bounce back today as the Dow was up 167 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still tracking lower but trying to turn around once again. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The market is trying to make up its mind on what to do here. The fact that we didn't see any downside follow through to yesterdays decline is a plus. I'm still in the bullish camp for now. Perhaps Fridays employment report will change things but that's just a guess as usual. Election results from Georgia will most likely dominate the headlines. I do not expect a democratic sweep and I expect that the market will like that. I could be wrong. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are now trying to turn back up. GE was up almost 1/3 on average volume. Gold added another six bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on around average volume. The gold shares are due for a rest after yesterdays stellar gains. Short term overbought for GDX but it would stay that way if this is a rally that has legs. I did place an overnight order for some GDX January calls and it was filled when GDX pulled back early this morning. It is showing a small profit. I am a believer in the breakout that occurred yesterday. We'll see if that belief is justified in the days ahead. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and that fits an up market. It did close above its 50 day moving average though. Tomorrow could tell us a lot about just where we're going. I think that we are going to take a run at new all time highs before the January option expiration. That's my take on things at the moment. The first trade of the new year is on. Hopefully I'll manage it better than most of last year. It would have been better to see some upside follow through with the gold shares today but I'm still confident that GDX will be higher before the options expire at the end of next week. We'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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