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Thursday, January 28, 2021

Bouncing back today as the Dow climbed 300 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. We did reach short term oversold on one of our indicators yesterday, so a bounce was due. Where we go from here is the question. I don't think we're heading back to new all time highs soon. I could be wrong but we're seeing some crazy price action in different stocks. Not to mention the TRIN has been getting some out of whack readings in the past two sessions. It all leads to uncertainty and the market never likes that. GDP came in about where expected but the market is marching to its own beat right now. We'll get the end of the month tomorrow and we'll see how things square off. GE was off over 1/4 on good volume. Gold lost a touch after being higher early on. Silver had a good day but it too fell back from the best levels of the day. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU jumped over 7 points, while GDX added over 3/4. Volume was above average. It was a plus to see the gold shares outperform gold. My open order for the GDX February calls remains out there. The gold shares had an upside gap at the open, so my order didn't have a chance to get filled today. Once again I have to decide whether to chase things here but I think I'll just leave my order out there and see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX turned lower today and most of the short term technical indicators have rolled back down. After closing above 35 yesterday unless we are about to see a really huge decline, the VIX should settle down. The 35 level is about where recent selling has stopped in the past six months or so. Of course the volatilty will increase the cost of trading the SPY options. I don't have any trades in mind there right now. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

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