Tuesday, January 26, 2021
Hnaging around before the Fed as the Dow lost 23 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The technical condition of the S&P 500 hasn't changed. Short term overbought and staying that way. The TRAN has slipped here along with the NYA and that's something to keep an eye on. But the trend remains up for the overall market until proven otherwise. I don't expect any changes from the Fed tomorrow. Once we get that out of the way it'll be back to the economic data and earnings. First look at 4th quarter GDP on Thursday. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was up 1/4 on extremely heavy volume following its earnings report. It did fall back quite a bit from the best levels of the day though. Gold was down five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower today. The XAU was off by 1 1/8, while GDX was little changed. Volume was light. We've had two days now with the XAU down over a point and GDX finishing little changed. Not sure what's going on there. These indexes remain short term oversold. My open order for the GDX February calls is still out there. I'm not sure if I want to adjust it to be filled before the Fed or just let it be. My thinking is that the gold shares and gold could rally post Fed since they are already oversold. However there doesn't seem to be a lot of interest in this sector lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today. The short term indicators have turned back up here. I really don't have a strong signal or conviction of what the overall market is going to do here. Therefore I'll have to stay on the sidlines with regards to the SPY for now. I'll ponder what to do with my open order for the GDX calls overnight. Asia was lower but Europe rallied overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed tomorrow.
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