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Thursday, January 07, 2021

The rally continues as the Dow gained 211 points on heavy volume. It's as if Monday never happened. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn back up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way higher. New all time highs in many of the major stock indices. No overhead resistance. Not completely short term overbought for the S&P 500 so there's probably more upside to come. At this rate the employment report won't matter because it will be viewed as a buying opportunity regardless. The bulls are in charge. GE lost a few cents on light volume. Gold fell five bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. My GDX January calls are now showing a loss. Still short term overbought for GDX and we'll need to see some upside soon or this trade will be a loser. Perhaps the jobs numbers will get things going higher again. This trade is also running out of time and the time premium is getting sucked out of it quicker as we head to expiration. We'll see what happens tomorrow and take it from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its 50 day moving average. Getting short term oversold here but not all the way there yet. The market is getting money thrown at it as it appears that Congress will be in a Democratic spending mood. We are also now seeing selling in the bond market on a large scale. This money is finding its way into stocks as well. Those are a couple of the fundamental reasons, we'll stick with the technicals. Not completely overbought yet but it is beginning to have the feel of a potential blow off top. Hasn't happened yet but it is something to keep an eye on. Price has now moved above the upper Bollinger band for the S&P. This can continue for a while but not indefinitely. It usually doesn't end well. Europe and Asia were both up in last nights trade. We'll close out the first week of 2021 tomorrow. All eyes on the employment report.

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