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Friday, January 15, 2021

Volatility returned for expiration Friday as the Dow fell 177 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The Dow sold off early and was down almost 400 points in the morning. It made up what it could and then moved sideways for the rest of the day. Retail sales came in weaker than expected and that was an excuse to sell. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 have rolled over but we're still overbought on a weekly basis. We are still above the 50 day moving average short term. GE was off 1/3 on light volume. Gold dropped twenty bucks on a stronger US dollar. The XAU fell over 5 1/2, while GDX slid almost 1 1/8. Volume was average. Perhaps my idea for the GDX February calls is the wrong one. However we are oversold here now. One of the more reliable timing indicators for the gold shares is just about at the point of a buy signal. Another day like today could trigger it. I'll be keeping an eye on it at the beginning of next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped early this morning and finished with a gain. It's now above the 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators are trying to turn back up. The decline in stocks could have been worse today. I'm not sure if the buying was for real or simply option expiration related. My thesis of new all time highs before expiration was wrong. Perhaps my take on things here is more bullish than it should be. We'll see what happens next week. Next week will be light on economic data but heavy on politcal intrigue. The new president will be sworn in with the threat of more violence in Washington. I do not think there will be any more riots there. The trial for impeachment of the former president could begin. We'll have to see how the market digests the news. There should be some earnings out as well. It will be a short week as we approach the holiday weekend now. Plenty of time to come up with a game plan for next week. The caveat here is the option premiums will be pricey due to the extra week in them. I'll be checking the charts as usual. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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