Wednesday, December 09, 2020
Today was the opposite of yesterday as we had a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow. It lost 105 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even though. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way down. A very dark candlestick has appeared on the NASDAQ daily chart, with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the S&P 500 daily after todays price action. The short term technical indicators for these two indices have now turned lower. We'll have to see if this is the beginning of the decline that I'm looking for or just a one day event. The NASDAQ leading the way lower is not a positive. GE just keeps climbing as it gained 3/8 on very good volume. Overbought to the extreme here though. Gold took a few steps back as the futures dropped over thirty bucks. The US dollar was barely higher. The XAU fell 3 2/3, while GDX shed almost a point. Volume picked up a bit to the downside. The gold shares did fare better than gold itself relatively speaking. I'm again considering the GDX January calls and may place an order in overnight. We are not oversold on the daily technical indicators yet, so patience may be the best plan for now. GDX closed back below its 200 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced off of the 20 level today and finished higher. The technical indicators here are now pointing up and have plenty of room to go. That would fit in with a more than one day decline for the market if they continue higher. There's still seven days to go in the December option cycle but it appears today was the day to try the SPY December puts. We'll see about that as we move forward. The background remains the same regarding the pandemic virus, vaccine rollout, stimulus talks and Brexit in the background. There was some negative chatter about Facebook today. Today was a market downer so we'll see if there is any downside follow through tomorrow. That would give us a better idea about what lies ahead. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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