Friday, June 20, 2025
We had a one day downside reversal for most markets today as they opened higher and closed lower. The Dow however managed to score a gain of 35 points on expiration very heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a positive sign. Markets are still at the mercy of geo-politcal concerns and the next headline. Tariffs have taken a back seat but they still remain. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are heading lower but price has been in a sideways range so far. No progress in either direction for over a month now. Not the best environment for trading options. We are rolling into the July option cycle. Gold dipped $27 on the futures. The US dollar was shighty lower as were interest rates. The XAU fell 2 1/3 and GDX lost 2/3. Volume was slightly below average. The short term indicators for GDX are heading down with room to go. Will I finally buy the GDX calls if it gets to short term oversold this time? The 50 day moving average lies at 50 and an up trend line from the beginning of the year comes in at 48. One caveat is that the events around the world have been a positive for gold this past week and it did not rally. That could be a problem for the gold bulls going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today and that fits with an overall down market. Some of the short term indicators here are overbought but not completely. On the weekly VIX chart the 50 day moving average is about to cross up through the 200 day. If that happens it would be bullish for higher VIX prices and bearish for stocks going forward. Not sure what to expect next from the VIX. The July option cycle is a day and half short due to the July 4th holiday. I'm still leaning towards the SPY puts but will be checking all the charts over the weekend as usual. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternon and time for a break.
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