Monday, June 30, 2025
Continuing higher as the Dow gained 275 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The Dow led things to the upside to close out the month of June. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a big move within the next two sessions and today takes care of that. The S&P 500 continues to travel above its upper Bollinger band and remains short term overbought. There is no overhead resistance. I'm not sure how much longer this goes on but I did place an order for some SPY July puts overnight. We do have a short term sell signal from one of our indicators but sometimes it remains in place for more than a day. It will take some more rally to get the put order filled so I am comfortable leaving it out there. We are still at the mercy of the next headline and we've got the jobs report on Thursday. It is also a short trading week in the US. Gold was up $32 on the futures. The US dollar continues to fall and interest rates were lower. The XAU was up 4 3/4, while GDX added 1 1/3. Volume was just about average. The short term indicators for GDX are turning up. It is possible that the decline for the gold shares is over. The Bollinger bands on the XAU are about as tight as they can get. Something big is probably about to occur in the gold shares. Which way is the question. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that does not fit with an up market. The last time this happened it led to some selling. The VIX is short term oversold but in rallies it tends to stay that way. Beginning of a new month tomorrow and we should see some positive money flows but we'll see. Asia continues to be mixed and Europe closed lower to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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