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Wednesday, June 11, 2025

We had a one day downside reversal as stocks opened higher and closed lower. The Dow only lost a point on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. The inflation data was mild. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still overbought. The negative RSI divergence remains intact after todays price action. Today may have been the time to purchase the SPY June puts but we'll have to see where things go from here. We wanted to see strength going into tomorrow for a decent short term sell signal but the market did not cooperate. Might have to stay on the sidelines but we'll see. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/8 and GDX rose 3/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up at the mid-range level. Volume has slowed down this week so far for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit higher today which fits with an overall down market. Remaining short term oversold as it has been. More inflation data out tomorrow. The US/China trade talks yielded nothing substantial. I'm still considering whether or not the S&P will reach a new all time high before option expiration Friday. If so we can forget about trying the SPY puts. Never an easy trade in this game. Asia higher and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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