Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Another day goes by in a sideways market as the Dow fell 44 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. The NASDAQ posted a small gain and the S&P 500 was off a point or so. The Fed left rates unchanged as expected and we got the usual market gyrations after that. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned lower and are now sideways on the daily chart. Things could still break either way here. All we have left is expiration Friday as the US markets are closed tomorrow. Gold was down $23 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was off 1 /2, while GDX shed almost 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have turned lower. My idea for the GDX June calls this week was wrong as chasing the gold shares higher after the attack on Iran would have failed. I was lucky none of my orders for the calls were filled. That said I was still considering getting some of the GDX calls near the close today with only a day to go in the option cycle. It would have had two days of news to digest for the price of one. But we try and stick to the technicals here and I will simply roll into the July option cycle. Hopefully we will see some kind of decent signal soon. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here have turned lower. This implies lower VIX readings and higher stock prices. However I'm not sure where the VIX goes from here. The market is still at the mercy of the next news event for now. Asia and Europe were mixed ovvernight. We'll take tomorrow off and see how things go on Friday.
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