Monday, June 23, 2025
Plenty of volatility today after the US bombed Iran over the weekend. There was movement in both directions before stocks made up their mind and went higher. The Dow gained 374 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index sideways. We got a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with the next two sessions and we got that move today. All the major indiecs moved higher. The S&P 500 was up over fifty points. The short term indicators here have turned back up. Perhaps the S&P is finally ready to break out of its sideways range. Gold was only up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. I would have thought that gold would be much higher today but that didn't happen. The XAU was up 2 7/8, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was average. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have turned back up at about the mid-range level. I would like to see GDX get completely oversold before trying the calls here but the market may not cooperate. Plenty of time in the July option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as it came back down after reaching its 50 day moving average. Its short term indicators have turned back down. If that continues we'll see a lower VIX and higher stock prices. I'm not sure exactly what we'll see next for the VIX because of the geo-political turmoil and the current headline risk. We don't have a clear technical signal for the SPY options at the moment either. I'll have to watch and wait for the time being. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to start off the trading week overseas. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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