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Friday, June 13, 2025

Sellers took over today as Middle East geo-political tensions erupted overnight. The Dow fell 769 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. This should turn the summation index back down. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions and we saw that move today. The Dow led the way down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over with plenty of room to go. We are back to an event driven market. There's only 4 days left in the June option cycle so it looks like we won't be making any SPY option trades soon. Gold was up another fifty bucks today. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. We saw gold up big yesterday for no apparent reason and the reason became clear overnight. Once again markets know things that we don't. Today the XAU rose 3 1/8, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was average. Once I saw what happened I made the decision to try and chase this move in gold. I placed an overnight order for the GDX June calls but it wasn't filled. I adjusted the order twice during todays session but it wasn't hit. I might try again on Monday depending on what goes on this weekend. GDX is close to short term overbought but with the current environment gold should continue higher. GDX did break out to a new recent high today. However the volume wasn't heavy and it is pretty far from its 50 day moving average. I really wanted to own the calls before the weekend but it didn't happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped up today and closed above the 20 level. Some of the short term indicators have already made it up past mid-range. The VIX is now at the top of the tight Bollinger bands which correctly forecast some type of big move coming. I would expect to see some more selling next week as whatever is happening in the Middle East will not be solved over one weekend. I'll be going over the charts to see if there is a trade that makes sense in the holiday shortened week ahead that includes a Fed meeting. Asia and Europe sold off to end the week as the risk off mindset took over. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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