Thursday, June 12, 2025
Just another day of hanging around as the Dow added 101 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending higher. The inflation data came in mild again. The S&P 500 led things higher today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. The S&P remains short term overbought and close to hugging its upper Bollinger band. Our next trading idea involves the SPY June puts next week for a very risky short term trade if things line up ahead of it. We've got the Fed next week as the main event but there's holiday on Thursday that compromises things. If we manage to drift higher going into the Fed announcement we might try the puts with only a day left. Otherwise it looks like we may have to remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold jumped $65 on the futures. The US dollar was lower again along with interest rates. The XAU gained 4 1/2 and GDX was up 1 1/2. Volume was above average. The short term indicators have turned up from the mid-range level and it appears that the gold shares are now headed higher. We can't beat ourselves up for missing this move as the gold indices never got to short term oversold. GDX is also getting to the point of medium term overbought as well so I'm not sure how much near term upside remains. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was higher today which doesn't fit with an up market. Still short term oversold here but the indicators are trying to turn back up. Not sure what's next for the VIX. However I would not be surprised if the VIX turned lower and stocks continued their ascent to new all time highs. Europe and Asia were mostly lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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