Wednesday, June 04, 2025
Another day of hanging around as the Dow fell 92 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is tracking sideways. The NASDAQ posted a gain and continues to lead the way. The S&P 500 finished basically unchanged. It remains short term overbought. I will be looking to buy the SPY June puts if we see some strength tomorrow. I am still in favor of this idea for a short term trade. However it may be too late if we start to drop from the open tomorrow. Gold was up $20 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX tacked on 1/8. Volume was light. GDX continues to be short term overbought. Still on the sidelines when it comes to the GDX options for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today. The Bollinger bands here are beginning to converge. The VIX is short term oversold. We have an overbought S&P along with an oversold VIX. A plus day for stocks tomorrow would trigger a sell signal on one of our timing indicators. We have what could be a potential negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart. So we could have what appears to be a set up for the SPY puts. But we do know markets can go where they want. Things can get and stay more overbought or oversold than you think. That said I will probably put in an order overnight depending on what the futures are doing this evening. Of course we are still at the mercy of the next tariff headline. Asia and Europe were both up in Wednesdays trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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