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Monday, June 16, 2025

Back to the upside to begin a holiday shortened week as the Dow gained 317 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. This should put the summation index back into sideways mode. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up and are still overbought. The troubles in the Middle East have been put aside by the market for now. Only three days left in the June option cycle with a Fed meeting on tap. Retail sales data tomorrow. Probably too risky to try a SPY option trade here but you never know. We really don't have a clear signal either way. Sometimes the sidelines are where you have to stay. Gold dropped $48 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX was off 7/8. Volume was a bit below average. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to roll over as they remain in overbought territory. I'm still looking at the June calls here though as there is an up trend line that comes in just below 53 on GDX. A move to that level will have me thinking about making a trade there even though there is hardly any time left in the June option cycle. My belief is that the gold shares are not about to fall apart here with all the trouble going on in the world right now. I could be wrong. This would be a highly risky trade as well since those options are running out of time. Not to mention that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates which would be a plus for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower today and is back below the 20 level. Some of the short term indicators have turned down but the rest remain at mid-range. Not sure what's next for the VIX but continuing lower on it would not be a surprise. Europe and Asia were higher to start the week as the recent geo-political tensions have seemed to fade pretty fast. I did not expect that. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developmnets.

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