Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Todays price action can best be described as digesting the previous two days worth of gains as the Dow fell 106 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. This should have the summation index tracking sideways again. The NASDAQ posted a gain while the S&P 500 ended the day flat. The S&P is hugging its upper Bollinger band. Some of its short term indicators are now overbought. If the market stays up into the close on Friday I may try the SPY July puts before the weekend. It would be risky for sure as it looks like the major stock indices are heading to new all time highs. There is another potential negative divergence on the daily RSI indicator for the S&P. This signal did not work out on the previous example but that doesn't mean it won't this time around. Or not. We'll see how things go before Fridays close and take it from there. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar continues to drop and interest rates finished flat. The XAU Was up 1/8, while GDX ended the day basically unchanged. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving sideways and they haven't made it to oversold territory. If GDX makes it down to 50 we'd think about getting some calls there. The longer term up trend line that began at the start of the year comes in at 48. A move down to that level would certainly have us trying the calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today in a mixed market. Not yet completely oversold on the short term indicators here. I don't have a good idea now for what's next on the VIX. Asia up and Europe down overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings headlines.
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