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Thursday, June 26, 2025

Pushing up to the cusp of new all time highs for some of the major stock indices as the Dow gained 404 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to move back up. Price and volume continue to confirm that the rally has legs. The S&P 500 is now above its upper Bollinger band. The potential negative RSI divergence on the daily chart has been negated after todays price action. The 50 day moving average is about to cross above the 200 day for the S&P. It appears that all signs point to higher prices in the near term. A decent inflation report tomorrow will most likely result in new closing highs for the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ. My SPY put idea will have to be put on hold. Gold finished the session flat. The US dollar continues to drop along with interest rates. The XAU was up 4 3/8 and GDX was up 5/8. Volume was light. The gold shares outperforming gold is a plus. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are strating to turn back up. The Bollinger bands on the GDX daily chart are beginning to converge. Could be that I've missed the chance for the July calls here but GDX did not get all the way to short term oversold. We'll see where it goes from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but did finish up from the lows. Short term oversold here now but not completely. The VIX can stay oversold during rallies and that is probably what will happen this time around. Another positive day for stocks tomorrow will trigger a sell signal on one of our short term indicators. However at this stage I will probably let tomorrow pass on by and consider what kind of trade I want to put on at some point next week. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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