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Tuesday, June 17, 2025

The market is trying to make up its mind here as sellers took over again. The Dow fell 299 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is drifting lower. The NASDAQ led the way lower. It has been back and forth for just over a week now. We should know soon whether we are going to challenge the old highs or start to move lower. Retail sales were a bit weak this morning. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over but haven't even made it to the mid-range level. Perhaps the market reaction to the Fed will provide us with some clues. Only two days left in the June option cycle with a rare Thursday holiday this week. I won't be trying any SPY optons trades here. Gold was off $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU was lower by a half and GDX finished basically unchanged. Volume was light. The gold shares have held up well so far this week despite the drop in gold. Silver broke out to a new recent high today. I am trying my best not to buy the GDX June calls here with only two trading days to go in the week. GDX remains short term overbought but the world is in such a precarious postion at the moment that I believe that gold could burst higher at any time. However the prudent thing to do would be to stay on the sidelines and wait for a clear techncial signal one way or the other. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was back up today and that fits a down market. Back over the 20 level and touching the upper Bollinger band again on the daily chart. The short term indicators are getting to the overbought region. The VIX is still below its 50 day moving average though. I don't know what's coming next for this indicator although I could possitbly make a case for it continuing higher for another day. We've got the Fed meeting tomorrow with rates expected to remain where they are. Geo-politcal worries remain in the forefront. Europe and Asia finished lower with the exception of Japan. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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