Tuesday, June 10, 2025
Continuing higher as the Dow rose 105 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Another up and down session with whatever selling that occurred quickly replaced with buying. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and up against the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart. One more positive session will negate the potential negative RSI divergence. Inflation data due tomorrow. Still waitng on the results of the US/China trade talks. New all time highs could be in the picture at some point ahead of option expiration. However if we remain to the plus side heading into Thursday I'll be considering the SPY June puts for a short term trade. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU lost 3 1/4, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are back to moving lower and are at the mid-range level. There is a short term up trend line for GDX at 48 and a longer term one at 46. These will be levels that we'll keep in mind if GDX gets oversold in the near term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. Not sure how long it will stay oversold but it's usually longer than you think. The contracting Bollinger band lines imply that something is brewing. However there is no signal for when that will take place. With the VIX already oversold the logical assumption will be that it will move higher and stocks lower at some point. This is something that I am trying to determine. Europe was mixed and Asia generally lower with the exception of Japan overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the CPI tomorrow.
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