Friday, June 27, 2025
An interesting day to say the least as stocks stormed higher out of the gate, gave it all back and then some only to rally on in the final hour to new all time highs in the NASDAQ and S&P 500. The Dow gained 432 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. The inflation data came in about where expected. The S&P is still climbing above its upper Bollinger band and the short term indicators are overbought. There is no overhead resistance. I will probably try the SPY July puts at some point next week. The question is when and where? Half a day trading on Thursday and a long holiday weekend coming up. Employment data will be released on Thursday. Monday is the end of the month and quarter. Not sure what kind of position squaring that we'll see there. All signs seem to point to higher prices going forward but as we saw today things can turn on a dime. Gold got clobbered as the futures fell $65. The US dollar was up a little as were interest rates. The XAU lost 7 1/2 and GDX shed 1 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. GDX is now at its 50 day moving average. The up trend line in place that began in January comes in just above 48. GDX is getting to short term oversold but is not there yet. The problem we now have here is that gold itself has now broken down through that same up trend line that started in January. Will the gold shares follow? This is something that we have to consider over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is now short term oversold. It can stay that way for a while during rallies which is where we find ourselves at the moment. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Plenty to do this weekend as we try and figure out the next trade. I'll be going over the charts as usual. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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