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Monday, April 01, 2024

Some minor selling to kick off a new month as the Dow fell 240 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall once again. The selling was concentrated in the Dow as the S&P 500 posted a small loss and the NASDAQ had a slight gain. It was a quiet session after a long weekend with some overseas markets still closed. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with the continued up trend. There doesn't seem to be any reason to think that these conditions won't just simply continue. We'll get a break in trend at some point but I certainly don't know when that will be. Waiting on a decent signal one way or the other to try the SPY April options. Gold was higher but off of the best levels on the day. The futures here rose $23. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX was up 3/8. Volume was good. I'd still like to purchase some GDX April calls but we are late to the party. Waiting on some type of pullback as GDX is short term overbought and above its upper Bollinger band on the daily chart. GDX has made it through the long term resistance and the trend is up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off of its best levels. The short term indicators have turned up but there doesn't seem to be much conviction. The VIX is still below its 50 day moving average. Still a little less than three weeks to go in the April option cycle. Plenty of time to get something done. Some economic data out this week topped by the jobs report on Friday. Plenty of Fed speak also. So we'll see how it goes. Asia was slightly higher with the exception of Japan and Europe was closed. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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