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Monday, April 15, 2024

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the market gapped up at the open only to turn around and drop for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 248 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way down. Not a good start to the week as the positive option expiration bias is nowhere to be found. The S&P 500 is almost at short term oversold. It closed below the 50 day moving average today. It's due for a bounce but at this point that is probably all it will be. We can make a case for support at the 5000 level but beyond that it would be 4800. No trades in mind for the SPY here. Gold rose $29 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were up as well. The XAU dipped 1 3/8, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume remains heavy for the gold shares. I did put in an order for the GDX April calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there but the risk is high with only four days left in the April option cycle. GDX did make it down to the up trend line at 33 this morning and bounced. I'm hoping for another trip to that line and it holding again to get my option order filled. If GDX breaks the line this trade won't work. GDX is still overbought so the risk is more than usual plus the April options will expire on Friday. I'll reconsider what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up and closed above the 19 level. It is almost completely short term overbought. Not sure what it will do tomorrow but stocks should see a bounce soon. Sellers have the upper hand for now. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher with the exception of the FTSE. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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