Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Stocks tried to bounce today but it was mostly in the Dow as the most watched index gained 63 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. Every attempt at buying today was met with sellers. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted small losses. The S&P is now short term oversold so I'm expecting some kind of attempt at a bounce here soon. The S&P 500 is below its 50 day moving average and now has a down trend line in place. The McClellan oscillator is very negative here and it usually doesn't stay that way for long. So we should at least see some short term upside for stocks in the near future. Gold was up $23 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume remains good for the gold shares. Gold up and the gold shares down is not a positive. GDX has closed right on its up trend line at the 33 level after breaking well below it early on. I did leave my open order for the GDX April calls out there and it was filled this morning. The entry was not that great and I could have done better. Plenty of risk with this trade as we only have three days to go. I'm counting on the up trend line holding things for GDX but it certainly didn't this morning. The trade is showing a slight profit as of the close today. I'm not sure how long I will hold it but probably will be selling it sooner rather than later. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with an overall lower market. It remains short term overbought. I don't know what to expect next from this indicator. We are in the next trade which won't last longer than the end of this week. Hopefully the market will see a bounce and take the gold shares with it. But we don't trade on hope. If the up trend line for GDX remains valid this trade will work out. If not it will be a loser. The short term indicators for GDX are about mid-range so we believe the trade has a shot. I could be wrong. Europe and Asia sold off last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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