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Wednesday, April 10, 2024

The inflation data came in a little hot and markets sold off as the Dow fell 422 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving lower. Much of the decline came early in the day with sideways activity for the rest of the session. It could have been worse but it wasn't. The Dow was the under performer today. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 had a big drop. The S&P 500 is getting to short term oversold. Tomorrows PPI should be above expectations as well so we'll have to wait and see how the markets respond to that. I'm beginning to think that the decline here will be more sideways than down. Gold was off $14 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates spiked up. The gold shares sold off at the open but then came back as the demand just doesn't stop. The XAU fell around 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2 after being down over a point. Volume was good. My order for the GDX April puts wasn't filled and I canceled it. GDX remains short term overbought but I am putting in an order for the GDX April calls again. It might get filled if we see another spike down for GDX tomorrow morning. The sell signal that one of our indicators gave for GDX was valid but it doesn't look to be long lasting in this case. It appears to me that the gold market is taking on a life of its own and we'll try to take advantage of that. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are turning back up. Not sure what's next for the VIX but it is above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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