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Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Still moving down with no bounce to be found as the Dow lost 45 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was much lower than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. Short term oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500 and that could be troublesome as we should have seen some kind of upside bounce by now. The TRAN has broken down. The McClellan oscillator is very negative and staying there which doesn't usually happen. Not sure what to think here but there's only two days to go in the April option cycle so trading the SPY options is not something we are going to do here. Would think that the calls would be the way to go in the short term but that obviously wouldn't have worked out this week so far. Gold was off almost twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains good here. The opposite of yesterday as today gold was down and the gold shares were up. The short term indicators for GDX are still mid-range. My GDX April calls are still showing a profit and are running out of time. GDX did finish off from the best levels of the session. I suppose we'll give them one more day but I should be out of this trade tomorrow. The up trend line in GDX has held for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that still doesn't fit with a down market. The VIX remains short term overbought. Not sure what is going on in the stock market at the moment as buyers are scarce. The usual positive expiration week bias hasn't shown up. The market knows more than we do though. Should have seen some kind of bounce this week but so far it hasn't happened. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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