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Tuesday, April 09, 2024

It was a back and forth session ahead of tomorrows inflation data and the Dow finished the day with a loss of 9 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower but now trying to turn back up. The market opened higher, then had a steep morning sell off only to come back in the final hour of the day. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains. My open order for the SPY April puts wasn't filled and I canceled the order. The short term indicators for the S&P remain at mid-range so it could go either way tomorrow. I still believe that the inflation data will come in above expectations and expect a market sell off. But the technical set up isn't clear so I'll have to remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold was up $17 on the futures. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates were lower. The XAU gained 3 points and GDX was up 5/8. Volume continues to be good for the gold shares. I am taking the risk here and put in an order for the GDX April puts which I am leaving open overnight. GDX will have to rise some tomorrow for this trade to be filled. This is a better technical set up and GDX is extremely short term overbought. We are also getting a sell signal on another of our short term indicators for GDX. But that doesn't mean that GDX can't simply remain overbought which is possible considering all of the money coming into this sector at the moment. How GDX reacts to the inflation data remains to be seen. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around today but did finish lower. The short term indicators have rolled over. The VIX is implying higher stock prices going forward but I'm not so sure about that myself. Running out of time on the April option cycle with a week and a half to go. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how the inflation data looks and the markets reaction to it on Wednesday.

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