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Monday, April 08, 2024

Running in place today as we basically had a sideways affair. The Dow fell 11 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. Most stock indices finished flat as the market is apparently waiting for the inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday. The S&P 500 was little changed with the short term indicators here at mid-range. I did place an order for the SPY April puts that I'm leaving out there overnight. It will take some gains in the market tomorrow to get filled. I would like to own the puts ahead of the inflation news but the premiums remain high. The data could be positive for the market which would make owning the puts a losing proposition. But I'm expecting the CPI to come in hotter than expected along with the PPI. I could be wrong. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The gold shares stalled today. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on above average volume. If I do not get the SPY April puts tomorrow I may try the GDX April puts instead. This would certainly entail much risk as so much money is pouring into gold and the gold shares at the moment. However one of our indicators for GDX is at the point where things normally turn around and head lower. We'll look again at this again tonight and decide what to do. I also don't want to put on a trade just to make a trade. But we can be pretty certain that the markets are going to get moving on Wednesday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and the short term indicators here have turned down or are in the process. This is another reason to be cautious with regards to the market downside prognosis going forward. Perhaps the inflation data will in fact be worse than expected and the market shruggs it off. Trying the SPY puts here doesn't have the best technical set up. The trading is never easy. Europe was up and Asia generally higher to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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