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Thursday, April 04, 2024

It was a dramatic one day downside reversal for the Dow as it gapped up to start the day only to roll over and finished with a loss of 530 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to move lower. Sellers took over halfway through the session and didn't stop. The short term up trend line for the S&P 500 has been broken. The short term indicators there have rolled over and are heading down with room to go. I had been looking at the SPY April puts but it may be too late. Perhaps the market knows more about tomorrows employment numbers than we do. Or maybe things bounce back tomorrow like today never happened. It will be interesting, that much we can count on. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU dropped 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume remains good for the gold shares. GDX remains short term overbought. I still want to try the GDX April calls if we get some pullback within the next couple of weeks. GDX remains pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that condition won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped and closed above its upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators for the VIX are getting to short term overbought but not completely there yet. Yesterday the VIX daily chart had the appearance of wanting to go lower but in fact did just the opposite. Not everything appears as it is and the indicators move where they want just like the market. We can only put the probabilities on our side but thay won't work every time. Europe and Asia were mixed in the overnight trade. We'll see how the market reacts to the employment data tomorrow.

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